So thinks Doug Anmuth, the Internet analyst from Lehman Brothers, in his weekly Friday note. Among his points:
-- Given that remaining TV inventory available in the “scatter” market is limited and reports suggest scatter ad rates which are 30%-40% above upfront rates, we believe advertisers may turn to where they know audience levels are growing and mass reach is still somewhat cost effective--the Internet.
-- We estimate a shift of 1% of total 2008 broadcast advertising revenue to the online channel could result in $491 million of incremental spending, potentially bringing our U.S. online advertising growth forecast from our current ‘08 estimate of 24% up to 26%.
-- We believe the primary online beneficiaries would be display-based sites such as Yahoo!, (NSDQ: YHOO) AOL, (NYSE: TWX) and MSN, along with advertising networks able to replicate broad reach.
-- While viewers are typically not alerted when a particular week’s episode is in fact a re-run, given the notable press coverage of this year’s writers strike we believe viewers are more keenly aware of the lack of new episodes and are therefore more likely to change viewing patterns.